Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 12.634387 15.445086 18.574852 22.295699 26.575202 31.319595 36.952738
2025-12-21 8.054352 11.470578 15.716399 21.282952 28.283442 36.687666 47.422570
2025-12-28 6.099885 9.803489 14.811348 21.863200 31.302140 43.255518 59.264007
2026-01-04 4.724861 8.475629 13.940064 22.116926 33.637180 48.861834 70.017133
2026-01-11 3.789027 7.525099 13.347578 22.534719 36.053059 54.560060 81.057387
2026-01-18 3.135068 6.847590 13.000465 23.175547 38.719774 60.645245 92.828523
2026-01-25 2.441429 5.919870 12.077979 22.771752 39.743324 64.406065 101.504575
2026-02-01 2.003537 5.349207 11.634415 23.025178 41.701783 69.530126 112.248614
2026-02-08 1.567549 4.658352 10.850908 22.591107 42.499818 72.928569 120.600577
2026-02-15 1.199633 4.000182 10.002154 21.914275 42.802398 75.533183 127.832110
2026-02-22 1.026034 3.749890 9.900703 22.538354 45.256210 81.508837 140.267678
2026-03-01 0.809316 3.313642 9.337023 22.228146 46.077902 84.938072 148.949484
2026-03-08 0.655708 3.013560 9.049487 22.484919 48.026864 90.461222 161.411985
2026-03-15 0.461177 2.494427 8.160195 21.443028 47.598943 92.144012 168.041026
2026-03-22 0.382432 2.326379 8.072667 22.025149 50.148271 98.826986 182.786495
2026-03-29 0.305800 2.122551 7.848827 22.280238 52.086643 104.551522 196.182449
2026-04-05 0.248810 1.964714 7.711331 22.700429 54.352237 110.911955 210.805811
2026-04-12 0.207694 1.852893 7.677406 23.344926 57.083496 118.173431 227.123329
2026-04-19 0.151719 1.616208 7.219474 22.938821 57.691253 121.731643 237.420354
2026-04-26 0.119650 1.484122 7.048552 23.193698 59.635827 127.716729 251.935418
2026-05-03 0.084898 1.290439 6.623040 22.757140 60.110891 131.063361 262.081768
2026-05-10 0.056676 1.096220 6.131854 22.076410 60.005138 133.322885 270.417475
2026-05-17 0.046228 1.041899 6.136236 22.704084 62.739437 140.912025 288.134738